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TRENDS magazine interview: Uncertainty reigns

January 26, 2017 Articles, Media / Op-ed
UNCERTAINTY REIGNS Published: Jan 26, 2017 [caption id="attachment_2347" align="alignleft" width="300"] Dr Kai L Chan, Economist and Distinguished Fellow at INSEAD, and advisor to the UAE government on competitiveness and statistics[/caption] Kai L Chan, economist and distinguished fellow at INSEAD, and advisor to the UAE government on statistics and competitiveness, says the big story in 2017 and beyond will be how China will engage with the international community as it economic power continues to rise. Q: 2016 has been a tough year for many oil-rich Gulf countries, especially due to dwindling oil prices. What are your expectations for 2017? A: Oil prices are expected to make a moderate recovery, but most forecasts peg the long-term price to still be well below the peak price of the early half of the decade (above $100). In fact, recent moves by OPEC have already given the price a small boost. In 2017, the price is expected to recover toward $60. Although much higher than the low experienced in 2015 (below $30), this is still less than the (pre-drop) break-even price for most countries in the region. So this means countries in the region will need to adjust their spending behavior, though less so in…

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