UNCERTAINTY REIGNS Published: Jan 26, 2017 [caption id="attachment_2347" align="alignleft" width="300"] Dr Kai L Chan, Economist and Distinguished Fellow at INSEAD, and advisor to the UAE government on competitiveness and statistics[/caption] Kai L Chan, economist and distinguished fellow at INSEAD, and advisor to the UAE government on statistics and competitiveness, says the big story in 2017 and beyond will be how China will engage with the international community as it economic power continues to rise. Q: 2016 has been a tough year for many oil-rich Gulf countries, especially due to dwindling oil prices. What are your expectations for 2017? A: Oil prices are expected to make a moderate recovery, but most forecasts peg the long-term price to still be well below the peak price of the early half of the decade (above $100). In fact, recent moves by OPEC have already given the price a small boost. In 2017, the price is expected to recover toward $60. Although much higher than the low experienced in 2015 (below $30), this is still less than the (pre-drop) break-even price for most countries in the region. So this means countries in the region will need to adjust their spending behavior, though less so in…
Letter to the Financial Times (April 11, 2018) From Kai L. Chan, Montreal, Canada Sir, Standing up for American interests and actually improving the lives of Americans are different things. The heterodox economics espoused by Peter Navarro (Opinion, April 9) are reminiscent of the mercantilism that held sway in the 16th century. The “help” that Mr Navarro and Donald Trump are pushing forth in the trade dispute with China are more likely than not to be welfare decreasing for the whole world. A similar kind of help, likewise from another Asian rival in the 1980s, came when the US government pressured Japan to impose voluntary export restraints on their car manufacturers. That led to unambiguous welfare gains to Japan at the cost of Americans, even as politicians thought they had done a favour for the American people. Kai L. Chan Montreal, Canada Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018. All rights reserved. Letter as it appeared in the FT. 
